septembre 18, 2021

Blue Jays standings 2021: Seeding scenarios, breakdown for AL wild-card spots

3 min read
Blue Jays standings 2021: Seeding scenarios, breakdown for AL wild-card spots

It’s September baseball and the Blue Jays are smack-dab in the middle of the playoff race.

Last season, Toronto’s club surprisingly made the postseason for the first time since 2016 thanks to the expanded format amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They were swept in the wild card round by the Rays but it laid a foundation, a taste of playoff action, for this young squad. (The 2021 season is back to the normal format of 10 teams advancing).

While the team has been bolstered by the play of the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, a slot in this year’s postseason gala was never guaranteed — even when the calendar turned to September. In fact, per FanGraphs, Toronto’s chances of making the playoffs was considerably lower at the start of the month:

  • Sept. 1: 10 percent chance of making the postseason
  • Sept. 7: 37 percent
  • Sept. 14: 72.5 percent

What a mighty turn; within two weeks, the Boys of Summer from Canada have positioned themselves for a spot in the Fall Classic. Of course, there are still some games to be played, and the AL East crown has all been decided (Rays) but things are looking good for a Blue Jays wild card spot.

Here’s an in-depth look at how the Blue Jays’ 2021 American League wild-card run is going:

Last updated: 5:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 14. All probabilities from FanGraphs.

AL Wild Card playoff standings 2021

  • Remaining games: 18
  • Remaining opponents: vs. Rays (Sept. 14-15); vs. Twins (Sept. 17-19); at Rays (Sept. 20-22); at Twins (Sept. 23-26); vs. Yankees (Sept. 28-30); vs. Orioles (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .563
  • Playoff probability: 73.1 percent

The Blue Jays are 15-2 in the last 17 games.

  • Remaining games: 18
  • Remaining opponents: at Orioles (Sept. 14-16); vs. Indians (Sept. 17-19); vs. Rangers (Sept. 20-22); at Red Sox (Sept. 24-26); at Blue Jays (Sept. 28-30); vs. Rays (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .556
  • Playoff probability: 55.4 percent

The Yankees went 1-2 vs. the Mets over the weekend and were outscored 24-17.

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  • Remaining games: 16
  • Remaining opponents: at Mariners (Sept. 14-15); vs. Orioles (Sept. 17-19); vs. Mets (Sept. 21-22); vs. Yankees (Sept. 24-26); at Orioles (Sept. 28-30); at Nationals (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .555
  • Playoff probability: 62.7 percent

Boston is tied with New York in the standings, but the Yankees have two games in hand.

  • Remaining games: 18
  • Remaining opponents: vs. Red Sox (Sept. 14-15); at Royals (Sept. 17-19); at Athletics (Sept. 20-23); at Angels (Sept. 24-26); vs. Athletics (Sept. 27-29); vs. Angels (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .542
  • Playoff probability: 4.2 percent

This series with the Red Sox is critical to the Mariners staying in the thick of the race.

  • Remaining games: 19
  • Remaining opponents: at Royals (Sept. 14-16); at Angels (Sept. 17-19); vs. Mariners (Sept. 20-23); vs. Astros (Sept. 24-26); at Mariners (Sept. 27-29); at Astros (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .538
  • Playoff probability: 5.1 percent

Outside of the Blue Jays (+174), Yankees (+28) and Red Sox (+51), the A’s (+61) are the only other team with a positive run differential.

  • Remaining games: 20
  • Remaining opponents: at Twins (Sept. 14 (DH), Sept. 15); at Yankees (Sept. 17-19); vs. Royals (Sept. 20 (DH), Sept. 21-22); vs. White Sox (Sept. 23 (DH), Sept. 24-26); at Royals (Sept. 28-30); at Rangers (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .493
  • Playoff probability: 0 percent

The Indians snapped a three-game slide with a win over the Twins in the first game of a doubleheader on Monday.

  • Remaining games: 19
  • Remaining opponents: at White Sox (Sept. 14-16); vs. Athletics (Sept. 17-19); vs. Astros (Sept. 20-23); vs. Mariners (Sept. 24-26); at Rangers (Sept. 28-30); at Mariners (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .490
  • Playoff probability: 0 percent

Angels need a whole lot of help — and probably won’t get it — if they want a wild card spot.

  • Remaining games: 18
  • Remaining opponents: vs. Brewers (Sept. 14-15); at Rays (Sept. 17-19); vs. White Sox (Sept. 20-22); vs. Royals (Sept. 24-26); at Twins (Sept. 28-30); at White Sox (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .472
  • Playoff probability: 0 percent

Tigers are pretty much done too.

  • Remaining games: 19
  • Remaining opponents: vs. Athletics (Sept. 14-16); vs. Mariners (Sept. 17-19); at Indians (Sept. 20 (DH), Sept. 21-22); at Tigers (Sept. 24-26); vs. Indians (Sept. 28-30); vs. Twins (Oct. 1-3)
  • Win percentage: .455
  • Playoff probability: 0 percent

With four more losses, the Royals will be eliminated.

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