NFL preseason Week 1: Bet with caution
4 min read
Betting NFL games is hard enough as it is, but you know what’s even harder? Betting NFL preseason games. Guess which games are the hardest to bet? Week 1. You know why? You simply don’t know if the starters are going to play, and if they’re going to play, how much will they play? It’s a total guessing game.
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Now, does that mean you shouldn’t bet at all on the preseason? Absolutely not. What about Week 1 of the preseason? No, but tread carefully. A lot of teams simply won’t play their starters or key players in the preseason in order to avoid injury. Just look at last week’s Hall of Fame Game between Jacksonville and Las Vegas — the first preseason game of the year.
The Jags sat starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence, running backs Travis Etienne and James Robinson, wide receivers Marvin Jones Jr. and Christian Kirk, tight end Evan Engram, offensive lineman Brandon Scherff and Cam Robinson and linebackers Josh Allen and Devin Lloyd. All 10 are projected starters for Jacksonville.
How did the Jags do against Las Vegas? Well, they lost to the Raiders, 27-11. But sometimes you don’t find out who’s in and who’s out until a couple of hours before kickoff. So, make sure you wait till you find out who’s playing before placing any preseason bet.
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However, certain teams have played well in the preseason — like New England and Baltimore. The Ravens have won 20 straight preseason games, and the Patriots won all three of their preseason games last season and are 6-1 in their last seven preseason games. That’s not just a coincidence. Both these teams have a long, winning tradition, have as much depth as any team in the league, and do a great job of evaluating talent. That’s why you should bet on both on Thursday.
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
I’d normally say take New England on the moneyline, but New York Giants first-year head coach Brian Daboll said earlier this week his starters will play on Thursday, including running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the starters play half of the first quarter or even the whole first quarter. Not knowing how long the starters will play scares me, though, so avoid New England on the moneyline.
However, take New England (+3) on the spread. You’re not getting even odds, but at -110, it’s still worth betting. As for future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick, unsurprisingly, he was pretty mum regarding whether or not his starters will play. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots’ starters play two or three series, and expect the backups to be ready to go. Very few teams in the league are as well-coached as New England is.
It’s not like starting quarterback Mac Jones is a veteran. Jones may be enshrined as the starter, but he’s only in his second year. Expect Jones to get some meaningful time in this one with the rest of the starters.
Joe Judge and Matt Patricia are back in New England as assistant offensive coaches, and even though the Patriots don’t list who’s the team’s offensive coordinator, expect both to be involved in calling plays. The catch is they don’t have much experience doing that with the Patriots because former offensive coordinator and current Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels called plays for 15 seasons with New England. That’s more of a reason to take New England on the spread — Judge and Patricia need to get some meaningful reps in that role.
But the biggest reason to take New England on the spread? The past preseason games between the two. The Pats have either won or lost by no more than three points against the Giants in four straight season contests. That convinces me enough to think this game is going to be close, and ultimately, New England will be able to cover (+3) on the spread.
Titans vs. Ravens
As for Baltimore, 20 straight wins in the preseason is no fluke. As long as the scoreboard is on, the Ravens always seem ready to play. It doesn’t matter if any of the starters play. The reserves are prepared to win — and maybe even expected to win. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh already said quarterback Lamar Jackson, tight end Mark Andrews along with a few other starters won’t play on Thursday, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take the Ravens to win. That just means more playing time for guys who are trying to make the team or earn starting spots, which means more meaningful game action.
Derrick Henry has had his reps limited so far in training camp and isn’t expected to play in any of the preseason games for the Titans. Advantage Ravens. Even if Henry were to play only one series, he’s dangerous every time he touches the ball.
Third-round pick Malik Wills may very well play a whole half, which could dictate the outcome. Now, how he plays is a total toss-up. Rookie quarterbacks are hard to gauge, especially in the preseason. Same with first-round pick Treylon Burks. Will the wide receiver even play? If so, how much? We simply won’t know till kickoff.
But 20 straight wins is 20 straight wins. Until Baltimore’s streak ends, you should keep taking the Ravens on the moneyline.
The Bet: New England (+3) vs. New York Giants (-110 via FanDuel)
Bet $110 to win $100
Baltimore (ML) over Tennessee (-190)
Bet $190 to win $100
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